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Environmental and epidemiological determinants of epidemic meningitis at the local level.

  • Researchers:
    Dr Louis E Cuevas, Dr Madelaine Thomson, Professor Charles A Hart
  • Start Date:
    01 January 2003
  • Category:
    Surveillance
  • Location:
    Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK, Health Bureau of Southern Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

The project aims to further develop forecasting models to predict meningitis epidemics within sub-Saharan Africa by incorporating epidemiological, weather and environmental information at the local level. The study will be based in the Southern Region of Ethiopia and is a collaborative study between the School of Tropical Medicine, the Department of Medical Microbiology (University of Liverpool), and the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (New York). Data from meteorological stations will include rainfall, humidity, temperature and visibility. Data from satellite sources will include TOMS aerosols (dust), SPOT Vegetation/AVHRR NDVI and derived products (land cover and soil types) and other locally available data on the environment. Other data will include topography, population, village distribution, roads, health facilities and administrative boundaries. Epidemiological data will include incidence and epidemic history of meningitis, vaccine use, prevalent strains among cases and contacts, asymptomatic carriage of pathogenic strains and other seasonal infections. Information will be collected for the last decade and prospectively for 2003/4. Models to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of epidemics will be based on multiple -regression methods used by our group to forecast meningitis epidemics in Sub-Saharan Africa at a larger geographical scale (see appendix one for a summary description). In this analysis both environmental and epidemiological variables will be assessed for their ability to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of epidemics. Variables found to be significantly related to epidemics will be combined to develop comprehensive forecasting models at Zone and Woreda level for Southern Ethiopia.

Read our news releases about this project:

Liverpool scientists in meningitis research - July 2005

Liverpool scientists in meningitis research - June 2003

Results from this study have been published in scientific journals as follows:

Savory EC, Cuevas LE, Yassin MA, Hart CA, Molesworth AM, Thomson MC.
Evaluation of the meningitis epidemics risk model in Africa.
Epidemiol Infect 2006 Feb 14;:1-13.
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=405692

Thomson MC, Molesworth AM, Djingarey MH, Yameogo KR, Belanger F, Cuevas LE.
Potential of environmental models to predict meningitis epidemics in Africa.
Trop Med Int Health 2006 Jun;11(6):781-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&list_uids=16771998&query_hl=3&itool=pubmed_docsum

Thomson MC, Molesworth AM, Djingarey MH, Yameogo KR, Belanger F, Cuevas LE.
Potential of environmental models to predict meningitis epidemics in Africa.
Trop Med Int Health 2006 Jun;11(6):781-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&list_uids=16771998&query_hl=3&itool=pubmed_docsum

Cuevas LE, Jeanne I, Molesworth AM, Bell M, Savoury EC, Connor SJ, Thomson MC.
Risk mapping and early warning systems for the control of meningitis in Africa.
Vaccine 2007 May 7; [Epub ahead of print].
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&Cmd=ShowDetailView&TermToSearch=17517453&ordinalpos=2&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum

Leo Steel
Meningococcal disease
Meningococcal disease at 0

It felt like the life I had woken up to in the morning was distant dream.

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