An enhanced small-scale model for predicting meningitis epidemics in Africa.

Research archive

Researchers from the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine have been studying meningitis epidemics in Africa. Although meningococcal disease occurs worldwide, most disease occurs in the "meningitis belt" which covers 15 countries across Africa. As well as consistently high levels of the disease, the area also suffers from huge epidemics on a regular basis. Since the late 1980's the size and persistence of these epidemics have overwhelmed local health services, with 190 000 cases being reported in 1996, prompting appeals for international help. However, help often comes too late to prevent or control an epidemic.

Meningitis epidemics in Africa happen in their "dry" season, stopping as soon as rain starts falling, and so scientists have long suspected that climate has an important role to play in these epidemics. Since 1998, researchers from Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, funded by the Foundation, have been investigating the relationship between the spread of meningitis and changes in the weather and the environmental factors.

The project has shown that humidity, the type of land cover (e.g. forest or desert), the number of people living in an area, certain soil types and the way that dust moves through the area can be used to predict epidemics. They have also found that regions outside the classic meningitis belt are susceptible to epidemics and that densely populated areas may have an increased risk in the future. The researchers have used this information to develop a large-scale model which accurately predicted the areas affected by meningitis in 2000, 2001 and 2002. They have presented their models to the World Health Organisation and discussed the vaccine policy implication of their prediction.

Additional funding has now been awarded by the Foundation to develop an enhanced, detailed model focusing on Ethiopia, which is often ravaged by epidemic meningitis and famine. This will enable prevention and treatment strategies to be put in place, thereby saving lives.

Read our news releases about this project:

Liverpool scientists in meningitis research - July 2005

Liverpool scientists in meningitis research - June 2003

Results from this study have been published in scientific journals as follows:

Savory EC, Cuevas LE, Yassin MA, Hart CA, Molesworth AM, Thomson MC.
Evaluation of the meningitis epidemics risk model in Africa.
Epidemiol Infect 2006 Feb 14;:1-13.
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=405692

Thomson MC, Molesworth AM, Djingarey MH, Yameogo KR, Belanger F, Cuevas LE.
Potential of environmental models to predict meningitis epidemics in Africa.
Trop Med Int Health 2006 Jun;11(6):781-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&list_uids=16771998&query_hl=3&itool=pubmed_docsum

Thomson MC, Molesworth AM, Djingarey MH, Yameogo KR, Belanger F, Cuevas LE.
Potential of environmental models to predict meningitis epidemics in Africa.
Trop Med Int Health 2006 Jun;11(6):781-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&list_uids=16771998&query_hl=3&itool=pubmed_docsum

Cuevas LE, Jeanne I, Molesworth AM, Bell M, Savoury EC, Connor SJ, Thomson MC.
Risk mapping and early warning systems for the control of meningitis in Africa.
Vaccine 2007 May 7; [Epub ahead of print].
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&Cmd=ShowDetailView&TermToSearch=17517453&ordinalpos=2&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum

This project was featured in our 2003 annual review. Click to view.